489 points by rbanffy 4 days ago | 461 comments on HN
| Mild positive Editorial · v3.7· 2026-02-26 00:35:58 0
Summary Energy Transition & Sustainability Acknowledges
This Ars Technica article reports on 2025 US energy data showing solar energy has surpassed hydropower following 35% growth, with analysis of coal, natural gas, and nuclear contributions. The content advances human rights related to informed participation in public affairs, access to information, and social welfare through substantive science journalism delivered freely and accessibly. However, extensive behavioral tracking infrastructure and third-party data sharing significantly compromise privacy and autonomy rights, creating tension between information access and surveillance systems.
> While the Trump administration has been hostile to renewable energy, there’s only so much it can do to fight the economics. A recent analysis of planned projects indicates that the US will see another 43 GW of solar capacity added in 2026—far more than the 27 GW added in 2025. That will be joined by 12 GW of wind power, with over 10 percent of that coming from two of the offshore wind projects that the administration has repeatedly failed to block. The largest wind farm yet built in the US, a 3.6 GW monster in New Mexico, is also expected to begin operations in 2026.
Hopecore. Onward. The horrors persist, but so do we.
I am reminded by the perhaps revisionist history but still applicable belief that slavery was really ended by industrialization making abolition economically advantageous and not actually a socially driven movement. (In reality it was certainly a convoluted mixture of the two I'm sure.)
I hope we are in a similar era with regards to climate change. Surely there's a lot of money to be made in harnessing effectively unlimited renewable energy that literally falls from the sky like manna. With a bit of social pressure we should be able to extinct the fossil fuel industry in my opinion.
I wonder why existing hydro isn't utilized to it's potential. For instance, the Grand Coulee Dam has the highest capacity of any power station in the US of almost 7 MW but usually puts out about a third of that.
Elon Musk mentioned that just a 100 square mile grid of Solar can power the entire USA. I did not believe it; a simple calculation later, I was convinced. The USA of yesteryear would have done this already and more. Sure other sources are required, but honestly we humans have to advance beyond burning dead things for fuel.
I have a goal of setting up solar on my property in the woods that goes directly to a wall of batteries, maybe Tesla, maybe something else. But definitely not going back into the grid. Does anybody have suggestions or advice on how to do this?
Who are the best companies doing this right now in New England? What products are folks using to store electricity? Are there any good resources for this kind of thing?
Kind of a weird headline. It makes it sound like this just happened. But it happened almost 2 years ago. Reading the article is also a bit confusing. I finally figured out they are only referring to utility scale solar and not total solar (utility plus behind the meter)
if this type of data is interesting to you, here’s a site I’ve built that tracks like grid data across the US and Canada: https://www.gridstatus.io/live
We have generation mix, load, and pricing data. Both real time and historical
The trump administration by refusing to admit the superior metrics of solar, they're just burying their heads in sand.
As admitting that solar is now a superior and cost effective means of energy means admitting that the US is no longer top dog.
As empires are built on mastering a source of energy.
the Portuguese | Dutch - mastered wind to power their ships.
the British mastered coal to power Industrial Revolution.
America mastered oil
now the Chinese have Solar.
even in places like Africa etc -- places were the grid was never available for $2k -- you can power your whole house with solar and lithium batteries. Panels are getting cheaper, same as batteries. Once the tipping point is reached for electric vehicles both personal and commercial - transition to fully electric mobility happens
It's incredible to me that California's primary generation source is cyclical solar — which it primarily offloads to PNW [0], who offsets any missing California solar with its MASSIVE Columbia River Hydro.
Essentially co-dependant renewables, the entirety of West Coast through Colorado balancing primarily between solar and hydro (and natgas peakers). Nothing like Québec (¡hydro!), but still something.
If ERCOT ("Texas") would get over their independant grid "benefits" [i.e. not having to follow federal regulations], they could be sloshing their primarily wind-derived kWHs into an even more-beautiful grid of flowing renewables.
Instead, 10-year winter storms risk hundreds dead and billion$ lo$t.
----
TVA is in planning stages for its second massive pump-storage facility — but Texas is probably wiser in its nascent battery storage investment [1], instead. TVA's Racoon Mountain Pumphouse is definitely impressive, but with all the upcoming "depleted" car batteries being reconditioned into the stationary electric storage market... water power storage is probably the more environmentally-damaging method (definitely more expensive?).
My layperson recommendations to industry [I'm blue-collar, electrician]: reduce coal, increase nuclear; increase micro battery storage (e.g. see Chattanooga's EPB implementations); maintain but stop building dams/pumped storage.
Solar/wind/nuclear/nat.gas will be able to run everything once we have enough battery storage to handle daily peaks. In a few more years we will be entirely able to remove our dependance from toxic coal [2]
Does anyone in these comments have any tips for would-be solar farmers or people who are generally interested in being part of building out the future of our grid? I'd like to get my hands dirty. I'm talking about getting into 5-10 MW projects, not solar on a roof.
This isn't a good thing unless it's paired with storage and transmission upgrades. Every time this kind of story posts I make this same comment and am met with the same probably well-meaning but ignorant responses. Solar generation is easy and cheap and simple. Actually getting that power where it needs to be, when it needs to be there is complex and expensive. You either need to store it or you need to transmit it very long distances, neither of which we can do effectively right now. Most of California routinely goes into negative power pricing - this is not the mark of a healthy system, it represents a massive inefficiency and destabilizing factor.
We need to pressure politicians to subsidize pump storage powerplants and massive transmission system upgrades (which means being ok with permitting new transmission lines) it's simply impossible to continue increasing the solar on the grid otherwise, we are rapidly approaching instability.
Happy to be a 5 year self generation participant contributing to these numbers. Given the very recent winter storms along the East Coast, that still has people without grid power at this very moment, such a residential generate and store system should be an eye opener to those impacted at times of greatest need. My own system was still generating during the storm as many erroneously believe the sun must be fully exposed to move electrons, nope.
I commented here in a recent HN energy post about my surrounding jurisdictions and the exploding utility costs per PJM that literally have governments suing each other. Just today one of those local jurisdictions announced a utility bill financial credit incentive for residents to attend a meeting to learn about what some already know intimately. Link is paywalled of course.
We are witnessing the accelerated adoption of local generation and storage driven by the economic costs of energy that has been directly and indirectly subsidized yet consumption is certainly not equal. As more and more move to self generate and store, per the meetings suggestion, the negative feedback loop is already in motion rising costs even more for those dependent on a centralized system.
For those that can see the light and where it is going; invest accordingly.
Those offshore wind farms are getting completed mostly because they were so deep into development when Trump tried to cancel them, with a ton of sunk costs. So the companies were able to make the decision to go forward because the extra costs of delays and lawsuits were still cheaper than abandoning the build entirely.
Future offshore wind farms now need to add in the expected costs and project risks of this sort of illegal government action when they make the decision at the early stage.
Trump is likely to have delayed off shore wind in the US by at least 4 years, and may be many more. This will cost ratepayers a lot, and set the US behind most other countries in the world.
Agreed on solar and batteries being mostly unstoppable, though. The Trump administration has not yet figured how to misuse the courts to block those. Their better influence is through PUCs and utility execs, that are likely to bend to the will of Trump.
One nice thing about what’s happening is that politics are losing to reality. I’m not even sure how this became a left vs right issue in the first place (isn’t the right meant to be pro free market!?) but it doesn’t matter at this point anyway.
It’s certainly not because of Texan politics either. It’s just cold hard reality. Renewables won’t be stopped at this point. Even the executive orders to halt wind farms don’t make a dent in what’s happening. We may end up a few years later than other nations but at least it’s unstoppable.
I've had so many arguments with people that think replacing a continual supply of gasoline with solar panels and batteries means that we are just as dependent on the source of solar panels as we are on the source of gasoline.
It's hard for people to visualize the massive shift here. It's the difference between needing to eat every single day, to merely needing to buy a 5-year supply and never having to worry about eating again until 5 years from now.
Except that it's 30+ years for solar panels, 20+ years for batteries.
The amount of independence and security that renewables-based energy infrastructure provides is hard to imagine for most people. The US's two big inflationary events in the past 50 years have been due to global fossil fuel supply shocks. And the second one that happened in the 2020s was when the US was a net exporter of energy! We still had exposure to inflation shocks because we had a global market for our energy sources.
Renewables change all that. Even if we bought all of our solar panels and batteries from China today, we'd have far better energy security, and have decades to build up the industry to replace them if we wanted to switch to autarky. (And autarky is a terrible idea, but that's a different discussion...)
There is global oil oversupply of ~2M-3.7M barrels/day. China destroys ~1M barrels/day of global oil demand for every 24 months of EV production. Iran needs $164/barrel to break even on their budget, $86/barrel for Saudi Arabia, ~$60 for US shale (per Bloomberg). China has already potentially hit peak oil and ~>50% of new vehicle sales are battery electric or plug in hybrids.
Oil is over, regardless of this admin's propaganda on the topic. If we want to speed up the US EV transition, we push refineries into retirement faster, pushing up refined gasoline prices. No one will build new refineries due to stranded asset risk, so those that remain are on borrowed time.
Oil analysts say there is a supply glut — why that hasn't translated to lower prices this year - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-analysts-say-there-is-a-s... - February 22nd, 2026 ("Coming into 2026, the consensus view among oil analysts was that the crude market was entering a period of deep oversupply, likely to keep depressing prices throughout the year. In 2025, oil prices fell by roughly 20% as the glut widened.")
> With a bit of social pressure we should be able to extinct the fossil fuel industry
Taking Europe versus China, California versus Texas, it seems like social pressure is less effective than markets. Let markets build the power source they want to build and lo and behold you get lots of solar and wind and batteries.
> I am reminded by the perhaps revisionist history but still applicable belief that slavery was really ended by industrialization making abolition economically advantageous and not actually a socially driven movement. (In reality it was certainly a convoluted mixture of the two I'm sure.)
More or less.
Adam Smith famously wrote that slavery was economically detrimental way back in 1776. It still took nearly 100 years to abolish slavery, and even to this day, people still equate slavery with prosperity (as implied by that controversial 1612 Project article, for example).
Another way to think about it, the South did not embrace slavery because it made them richer; the South embraced slavery because they opposed industrialization. Southerners would regularly complain about the hustle and bustle of the North, the size of the cities, and how hard regular (white) people had to work. The "Southern way of life" was a thing - a leisurely, agrarian society based on forced labor and land instead of capital.
In this regard it's a doubly fitting metaphor because much of the opposition to abolishing slavery was cultural and not economic.
That entire talk didn't once mention the phrase "energy density" which is the real reason we rely so heavily on hydrocarbons.
Additionally this talk makes the usual mistake of conflating "electricity" with "energy". While the US does have fairly high percentage of energy in the form of electricity it's still only around 33% of the US energy needs.
And still we see that "green energy" only supplements not replaces our other energy needs. We've seen tremendous EV adoption and yet US oil consumption is on an upward trend and nearing pre-pandemic highs [0].
It's wild that there are multiple, very serious global conflicts heating up over control of oil and people still believe we're just a few more years away from a purely green energy world with no evidence to suggest that's a remotely reasonable belief.
Looking at the data for lake that goes through the dam, it seems like they keep it at the same level. So it probably CAN make 7MW with more flow, but generally only flows at a state that puts out 2.
Not 100 sq miles but 100 mile x 100 mile, which is 10,000 sq miles. And that assumes peak efficiency. Factoring in degredation you'd have to multiply this by 2.
Not "just" by any stretch of the imagination. This is larger than Rhode Island and Lake Erie combined. Aka a pipe dream. Might as well "just" build a dyson sphere while we are at it.
Niagra falls doesn't run at full capacity because it takes away from the attraction of the falls themselves, and tourism is important there. They turn up capacity after hours, and the falls slow down.
It bothers me that you attribute this to Elon Musk. This has been obvious to everyone for 75 years or more. The lecturer in my freshman thermodynamics class mentioned it, 35 years ago. In 1999, NREL scientists writing in the journal Science under the title "A Realizable Renewable Energy Future" made the specific claim about 10000 square miles.
Lake Powell behind Glen Canyon Dam is currently at 23.6% of capacity.
Lake Mead behind Hoover Dam is currently at 29.7% of capacity.
Given the current state of the Upper Colorado River basin snow pack, there is a not-insignificant chance that Lake Powell will recede below a minimum power generating level by the end of this year for the first time ever.
I've found lots of communities online on both reddit and facebook for solar DIY and there's some youtubers out there that talk about what you need for this and do reviews of different batteries/inverters/panels.
From what I've heard Tesla has a high cost/energy storage rate and you'd be better of going with something else (even if you have a tesla) but it would boil down to are you wanting to set this up yourself or hire a professional to do all the wiring.
How big of an install are you looking to do? I just did a ground mount install on my property. (4kw panels, 5kwh battery) If you are good with your hands, and can follow instructions then I would recommend you do the work your self. The actual installation of the panels and battery are close to plug n play. The cost of an electrician can easily double the project costs for small projects.
For the panels I did whatever was cheapest on signature solar. For batteries and inverter I did eco-worthy. (eBay for that, they run sales pretty often) in total is was $1000 for the panels (that included delivery) and around $1200 for the battery and inverter. If you have a truck then you might be able to find cheaper panels locally.
On YouTube check out DIY Solar Power with Will Prowse. He is a certified electrician and publishes part lists and plans that are easy to follow.
A few things that I've needed to deal with in my off grid setup:
I like the MidNite solar controllers.
LiFePO4 batteries are great, with a few caveats:
- you must use batteries from the same batch, ie you can't upgrade capacity piecemeal, to avoid degrading the new ones
- cable lengths are important because even small differences in resistive losses between batteries can mean that one battery is doing more charging / discharging
- you can't charge below 0\*C, which I'm assuming could be a problem in New England
I am quite hopeful. One benchmark that was passed only very recently was Levelized Full System Cost parity in Texas. That is, the total cost of generating electricity via renewables, importantly, including storage and infrastructure costs became equivalent to other options.
I don't think this gets talked about enough because its truly a milestone.
It's still more expensive in colder places, but the math is changing very fast.
Presumably we have dammed everything that made sense to (and some that didn't), so solar / wind will keep growing while hydro is unlikely to change (unless it drops).
I've read somewhere how the English people industrialized because they had problems that could not be fixed by human or animal power. Mines became too deep, pumping too hard. The ancient greek knew about steam engines, but had no use for them. The English did, in their mines. Necessity as mother of invention. Then machines freed us from hard labour and gave us free time.
I bookmarked this thread because i'm very interested too. If AI takes all teh corporate jobs then I'm going to be a photon farmer. you can get land down in Brewster County Texas for about $1,500/acre but would need to find a spot close to a grid access point. There's some decent reddit discussions on this sort of thing.
tesla isn't great value any more. For a while powerwalls were the shit And the powerwall three is nice, with direct DC charging as well as islanding.
But, only 13kwh still, and internet dependency, and very expensive.
I currently have enphase micro inverters and a power wall 2. It was the right mix at the time.
But, if you have the space, which I think you do, An insulated shed for a 19" rack, and choose any one of the many battery unit makers. Its about $200 per kwh now (in UK prices, I'm not sure what tarrifs are doing for you)
then get a frame for your solar (or build a barn and roof it with solar, its cheaper than 12mm plywood at the moment.)
Have micro inverters, they are more expensive, but solid state, less likely to catch fire, do MPPT better, and are not a single point of failure.
You'll need backup for when solar doesn't cover your daily needs, so either grid or some other power source.
Panels prices bottomed about a year ago below many manufacturer's cash cost, and have gone mostly sideways since.
https://www.pvxchange.com/Price-Index
If silver stays above $70/oz, prices will likely go up by 5-10%.
Until Perovskite tandem technology matures, there's unlikely to be any significant reduction in PV module prices.
> belief that slavery was really ended by industrialization making abolition economically advantageous
On the contrary, historians broadly agree that industrialization (particularly the advent of the cotton gin) actually turbocharged the human trafficking industry in the US. The cotton gin moved the bottleneck for textile production onto enslaved people, since there was no automation available for planting, cultivating, or harvesting the cotton.
That would be around 30kwh per day so probably not, but you could get close.
Assuming you're in the US, new solar modules go for about $0.28/watt.
If you dump the entire $1k into just modules, that will get you about 3.5kW of panels. Which will probably hit your target on sunny days during the summer.
But that doesn't include inverters if you want to do a grid tie, or batteries if you don't, or wiring, or whatever you're going to mount the panels on.
Medium A: promoting informed public discourse on energy policy
Editorial
+0.35
SETL
+0.26
Article frames energy transition as factual development with policy implications. Discussion of renewable energy growth, grid changes, and energy use patterns relates to dignity, sustainable development, and informed participation in public affairs.
FW Ratio: 60%
Observable Facts
Article reports final 2025 energy data showing solar passed hydropower on US grid following 35% growth.
Content is freely accessible without paywall (has_buy_button:false in metadata).
Low A: presenting information on cross-border energy trends
Editorial
+0.30
SETL
0.00
Article discusses US energy system changes with potential relevance to global energy transition conversations. No barriers to information movement implied.
FW Ratio: 67%
Observable Facts
Article discusses US grid as component of broader energy transition context.
Content served globally without geoblocking detected.
Inferences
Global accessibility supports freedom of information movement.
Medium A: providing education about energy systems
Editorial
+0.30
SETL
-0.13
Article provides technical education about energy grid composition, renewable energy growth, and policy implications. Science editor position and detailed data analysis support educational mission. Aimed at technologist audience implies education/literacy focus.
FW Ratio: 63%
Observable Facts
Article authored by science editor and provides detailed technical energy data and analysis.
Site mission explicitly states 'serving the technologist' with analysis content.
Accessibility features enable educational access to broad audience.
Word count (840 words) and complexity indicate substantive educational content.
Medium A: addressing energy/environment as social concern
Editorial
+0.25
SETL
+0.11
Article reporting on energy transition relates to social and economic security through sustainable resource management. Energy access and grid reliability constitute elements of social security.
FW Ratio: 60%
Observable Facts
Article discusses grid composition changes affecting national energy security and reliability.
Energy transition reporting relates to broader social welfare and sustainability concerns.
Public accessibility enables broad social participation in energy discourse.
Inferences
Energy system reporting contributes to informed understanding of social security dimensions.
Public access supports social participation in energy/environment policy awareness.
Medium A: sharing cultural knowledge about technology/energy transition
Editorial
+0.25
SETL
+0.11
Article contributes to shared cultural understanding of energy transition as significant social change. Technical analysis and data presentation constitute participation in cultural scientific discourse.
FW Ratio: 60%
Observable Facts
Article discusses energy transition as culturally significant development in US infrastructure.
Science section and technical analysis support scientific culture participation.
Public accessibility enables cultural participation.
Inferences
Energy transition reporting contributes to shared cultural understanding of technological change.
Public access supports Article 27 participation in scientific and cultural life.
Low A: treating energy transition as universal concern
Editorial
+0.20
SETL
+0.10
Article discusses energy use and grid transformation as national phenomenon affecting public welfare. Implies shared human interest in sustainable energy systems.
FW Ratio: 67%
Observable Facts
Article headline emphasizes solar growth as significant grid development affecting national energy system.
Content accessible to broad audience regardless of socioeconomic status.
Inferences
Framing energy transition as public concern suggests recognition of shared human stakes in sustainability.
Medium A: reporting on public energy policy matters
Editorial
+0.20
SETL
-0.11
Article discusses energy grid changes and policy implications without explicitly promoting assembly or association. Reporting on public energy systems has implicit relevance to collective action on climate/energy.
FW Ratio: 60%
Observable Facts
Article discusses collective energy infrastructure (US grid) as shared public concern.
ABTest class in page code indicates testing/engagement mechanisms that could facilitate user interaction.
Content distributed through public platform enabling community formation.
Inferences
Energy policy reporting implicitly relates to capacity for collective action on shared concerns.
Platform structure enables community engagement around shared information, though minimally activated in visible source.
Medium A: reporting on energy/sustainability affecting health and welfare
Editorial
+0.20
SETL
-0.17
Article addresses energy systems and grid changes relevant to health and environmental welfare through clean energy transition discussion. No explicit health claims but energy source matters for air quality/climate health.
FW Ratio: 67%
Observable Facts
Page includes text-settings configuration (size, links, width, position) enabling users to customize accessibility.
Article makes no overt reference to non-discrimination principles. Content focuses on energy data without explicitly addressing equality of access to energy systems.
FW Ratio: 50%
Observable Facts
Article reports energy data without discussing distributional equity or access disparities.
Inferences
Absence of equity analysis reflects common gaps in energy reporting, not active discrimination.
Article reports on energy data without explicitly addressing social order or rights framework. Implicit support for information-based democratic order.
FW Ratio: 67%
Observable Facts
Article provides public information supporting informed democratic participation in energy policy.
No barriers to information flow that would undermine social order.
Inferences
Energy reporting contributes minimally to framework for human rights recognition.
Medium P: tracking and targeting limiting freedom from interference
Editorial
-0.10
SETL
+0.09
Article content does not address duties or limitations, but platform implementation imposes significant behavioral tracking contrary to freedom from interference.
FW Ratio: 67%
Observable Facts
Multiple tracking systems operational: Fides (FDS-MIKT8M), Snowplow (c.arstechnica.com), Google Analytics (GTM-NLXNPCQ), Permutive cohorts.
User behavior profiled for advertising purposes (cohort bjfa).
Third-party vendors receive user data for targeting: DFP, Xandr.
Consent system exists but does not prevent comprehensive tracking.
Inferences
Behavioral tracking represents significant interference with privacy and informational autonomy.
Ad-targeting infrastructure limits user freedom to interact without behavioral surveillance.
High A: reporting factual energy data and analysis F: framing energy transition as significant policy development
Structural
+0.40
Context Modifier
+0.25
SETL
+0.29
Public platform accessible without editorial gatekeeping based on viewpoint. No paywalls restrict access. Infrastructure enables wide distribution. Domain context indicates editorial independence mission statement (serving technologist with news/analysis).
Medium A: providing education about energy systems
Structural
+0.35
Context Modifier
+0.05
SETL
-0.13
Site mission statement 'Serving the Technologist since 1998. News, reviews, and analysis' explicitly frames educational purpose. Accessibility features (text-settings) support educational access. Free access enables broad educational reach.
Medium A: reporting on energy/sustainability affecting health and welfare
Structural
+0.30
Context Modifier
+0.05
SETL
-0.17
Accessibility accommodations visible (text-settings controls for size, links, width, position). These structural features support Article 25 right to health by enabling universal information access.
Medium A: reporting on public energy policy matters
Structural
+0.25
Context Modifier
+0.25
SETL
-0.11
Public platform enables formation of communities around shared information. Comments section capability (implied by ABTest class in code) could facilitate association, though not explicitly visible.
Medium A: promoting informed public discourse on energy policy
Structural
+0.15
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
+0.26
Public access without paywall supports information access. Tracking infrastructure and ad-targeting compromise some privacy/autonomy principles underlying human dignity.
Medium P: tracking infrastructure potentially enabling surveillance/control
Structural
0.00
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
-0.05
Tracking infrastructure and cohort-based targeting could be leveraged for surveillance or control. Current implementation focused on advertising but architecture enables abuse.
Medium P: tracking and targeting limiting freedom from interference
Structural
-0.15
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
+0.09
Extensive tracking infrastructure (Fides, Snowplow, Google Analytics, Permutive, ad networks) represents interference with privacy/autonomy. Cohort-based targeting limits freedom from behavioral profiling and manipulation.
Fides consent system, Snowplow analytics, Google Analytics, Permutive cohorts, and ad networks (Google Ad Manager, Xandr) collect behavioral data. Multiple third-party vendors receive user information without granular consent mechanisms visible in source.
Subtitle 'Coal makes a bit of a comeback, if only by accident' suggests accidental causation without exploring policy, market, or infrastructure factors contributing to coal trends.
build 1ad9551+j7zs · deployed 2026-03-02 09:09 UTC · evaluated 2026-03-02 10:41:39 UTC
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